SALINAS — A month into the new year following a “second surge” in the COVID-19 pandemic locally during the holidays, Monterey County’s data continues to make steady improvement.
County Health Officer Dr. Edward Moreno told the Board of Supervisors Tuesday that “fortunately we’ve seen a decline (in the virus’ local numbers) in the last several weeks.”
However, Moreno warned against attending Super Bowl parties on Sunday with people outside the household because of the increased risk of spreading the virus.
According to Moreno’s presentation to the county board, local case rates, test positivity rates, and hospitalizations are all trending downward and local ICU bed capacity is on the upswing.
After soaring to about a seven-day average of 110 cases per 100,000 population last month, Moreno reported that as of Saturday local case rates are less than half that at an adjusted 52.3, while the local test positivity rate is at 13.3% and the local “health equity” test positivity rate is at 19.1%, after rising to 20% and 28.6% about a month ago.
If the case rate can fall again by a little more than half, local elementary schools can consider limited re-opening since the state has increased the limit for doing so to 25 cases per 100,000 population.
The state is still requiring the local case rate to fall below 7%, and the test positivity rates to drop below 8%, before the county can move from the “widespread” or purple tier to the “substantial” or red tier under the state’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy system, easing restrictions on local business and activity.
Meanwhile, the number of patients with the virus in local hospitals has fallen to as low as 81, according to Natividad Chief Medical Officer Dr. Craig Walls on Wednesday, after rising to more than 200 last month. Those hospitals’ ICU bed capacity has increased to 35% as of Saturday after dipping below 10% twice during last year’s holiday period in November and December.
Moreno reported 142 COVID-19 patients in local hospitals as of Saturday, and county health reported 118 as of Wednesday morning, but Walls said his numbers come directly from the four local hospitals and noted the county reporting tends to lag.
Walls said he was “cautiously optimistic” about the local COVID-19 trends, including at Natividad, though he noted the local data had shown a tendency to change in the past.
At the same time, Walls said the county-owned hospital is still packed with patients who have not tested positive for the virus, and it had 149 as of Tuesday morning.
Also Tuesday, Moreno noted state officials are monitoring the emergence of COVID-19 variants. State modeling data indicates one particular variant dubbed B.1.1.7 is expected to be the dominant variant by next month and “has the potential to increase the pandemic trajectory in the coming months.” Increased transmissibility of the variant would require continued compliance with “infection prevention” measures including the use of face coverings, social distancing, hand washing, staying at home as much as possible, and avoiding gatherings outside the home.
As of Wednesday morning, county health reported a total of 40,104 confirmed cases, and 286 people who had died with the virus.
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February 04, 2021 at 05:49AM
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Local Covid-19 numbers trending better - Monterey Herald
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