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As we saw in yesterday’s NASCAR Cup Series race, Michigan International Speedway’s smooth surface results in very little tire wear.
This, in turn, allows crew chiefs the opportunity to roll the dice on tire and pit strategy in order to leapfrog cars ahead and try to steal that all-important track position.
This also opens the door for prop-betting value as drivers priced as longer shots can either race their way toward the front, or even steal better finishes by nailing strategy.
After examining yesterday’s results and performance metrics, here are two drivers bettors should target for top-10 finishes in today’s Consumers Energy 400 (4:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN).
NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Betting Picks
*Odds as of Sunday at 7:30 a.m. ET
Erik Jones (+270) for a Top-10 Finish
This is my favorite bet of the day. For the same reasons I think there’s value in betting Jones to win, there’s certainly a big enough edge to play him for a top 10 as well.
In yesterday’s race, Jones tied for the fourth-best average running position, had the fifth-best driver rating and ran the sixth-most fast laps.
However, his 11th-place result has led oddsmakers to undervalue just how fast that race car was.
This has value all the way down to +100.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, CO, IN and WV only.]
Cole Custer (+1000) for a Top-10 Finish
I get that Custer will start 34th today. I get that Custer will need to run a backup car after spinning and backing it into the wall yesterday.
Despite all of that, this price is nuts.
Custer has four top-eight finishes in his last six races, which includes Saturday’s result.
In addition, Cole won at Kentucky on this very same tire combination, showing he can, at the very least, compete for a top-10 finish on a surface similar to Michigan.
Remember, betting odds are nothing more that probabilities. At 10-1 odds, the betting market is implying Custer has a 9.09% chance to finish in the top 10.
I put Custer’s chances at closer to 20%, which means there’s meat on this bone down to +400.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, CO, IN and WV only.]
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August 09, 2020 at 09:47PM
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The Action Network: Best prop-betting values for Michigan-2 - NASCAR
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