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Kevin Harvick has won the last three fall races at Texas Motor Speedway and is the +260 favorite for Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN). From an outright winner standpoint, that means bettors will likely have to decide whether it’s smarter to bet big on Harvick or try to beat him with a handful of other drivers.
I’ll leave that web for Nick Giffen to untangle. On the other hand, Texas’ smooth surface makes it easier for longer shots to steal better-than-expected finishes with tire strategy, making prop bets better values than at typical tracks.
With this in mind, here are two props for Sunday’s race at Texas that I’m grabbing right now.
NASCAR at Texas Odds, Betting Picks
Alex Bowman (+450) for a top-five finish
The No. 88 Chevrolet has stepped it up at intermediates since the start of NASCAR’s playoffs with Bowman’s average finish of 4.0 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway (both 1.5-mile tracks like Texas) the best in the series this postseason.
Bowman has also run the fourth-most fastest laps and has the fourth-best driver rating over those two races, showing he’s not only stealing top-five finishes, but is also consistently showing top-five speed.
At +450, I’m backing Bowman to accomplish that feat for a third straight race on a 1.5-mile circuit.
[Bet Alex Bowman now at BetMGM and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]
Chris Buescher (+1000) for a top-10 finish
Buescher is certainly a long shot, but a 400-1 long shot is pretty insane. No, that doesn’t mean I’m betting on him to win at those odds, but it’s important to note that price because that’s also the number sportsbooks will use as a basis for prop prices, like top-10 finishes.
Considering the No. 17 Ford had the ninth-best driver rating at Texas earlier this year and posted top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Las Vegas, Buescher’s 10-1 odds to manage that feat on Sunday is worth a wager.
Odds of 10-1 imply a 9.09% chance, and considering that Buescher has two top 10s in eight races at similar tracks for a 20% top-10 finish rate — while posting a top-10 driver rating in July at Texas — this number has a very attractive betting edge.
[Bet Chris Buescher now at BetMGM and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]
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October 25, 2020 at 03:36AM
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The Action Network: Bowman, Buescher props to like at Texas - NASCAR
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